The Belarusian army is unable to launch an offensive into Ukraine on its own, without the participation of Russian troops but the Kremlin keeps a third of its battalion tactical groups in reserve.
That’s according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR MO), Ukrinform reports.
According to the agency spokesman Vadym Skibitsky, as of now, the Belarusian army keeps only seven battalions near the borders of Ukraine on a rotational basis.
Today, separate units of the Russian special operations forces, together with those of Belarus, undergo joint exercises to work out action on the territory of Ukraine. Such drills are ongoing along the entire border line.
Skibitsky noted that a similar exercise program was observed during all previous joint exercises of the Belarus and Russia armies. "That is why the main threat now is about sabotage and reconnaissance groups," the intelligence spokesman said.
According to the GUR, given the experience gained from March to April, the formation of a strike group will take three to four weeks, of which two to three weeks will be needed to ensure the return of Russian army units to Belarus.
At the same time, an offensive operation by the Belarusian armed forces are considered "extremely unlikely."
According to intelligence, today the total number of Belarusian units on rotation along the border is estimated at 4,000-6,000. Also, there are some 1,500 Russian forces, including an air component, air defense, specopsm, and missile forces.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, referring to Ukraine’s intelligence, Russia will try to draw Belarus into the war with Ukraine through a series of false flag operations targeting Belarusian infrastructure facilities and the civilian population. To this end, Russian sabotage groups had arrived in the Belarusian city of Mozyr, posing as civilians.
Meanwhile, Belarus continues to provide its resources to assist the Russian Federation in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In particular, overnight Saturday, the Russians launched a massive missile and bomb attack on the territory of Ukraine, with some of the missiles having been fired directly from the territory of Belarus.