Moscow will be ready for a war against Ukraine ‘in a month,’ Felgenhauer says.

With the turn of the calendar and increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine and Russia and the West, Moscow will be ready to launch an attack on Ukraine “in a month,” although it remains far from certain whether it will take an action that could lead to a European or even world war, Pavel Felgenhauer says.

Pavel Felgenhauer, Russian military analyst

The prominent and independent Moscow military analyst says that clashes in the Donbas and the buildup in Russian forces just to the east of that region create the conditions which have the potential to lead to a wider war, although for the moment, only “the potential.” Whether things go further remains to be seen.

But one thing is already clear, Felgenhauer says, and it is this: the Western powers have no idea what to do in this situation. And the clock is ticking. “At the beginning of May, everything will be ready” for a Russian military advance. Those preparations have already been decided upon.

More on the topic: Putin claims right to territories of former Soviet republics

“Threats are growing and doing so rapidly,” he continues. “Much isn’t being discussed in the open press, but we are observing very bad signs.” Moscow has sent a naval group from the Baltic Sea through the English Channel to the south carrying enough marines for “a real ‘Normandy-style landing’” along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.

Many have pointed out that Ukraine is far better prepared to resist than it was in 2014, but they fail to note that Russia too is in a “much-better” position than it was seven years ago, Felgenhauer says. It has ‘overwhelming qualitative and quantitative supremacy,” and it has eliminated all competitors within the Donbas area.

More on the topic: Two words that shook Putin’s regime

Today, “the leaders of the ‘DNR’ and ‘LNR’ are fictions: they don’t command anything.” Instead, those areas are under the operational control of the staff of [Russia’s] Eighth Guards Army in Novocherkassk.” In addition, to the north, there is the 150th Russian division, an enormous force in its own right.

In Crimea, he continues, there is the 22nd Army Corps of the Shore Forces of the Black Sea Fleet with its own shock tank brigade. In the event Moscow decides to launch a major offensive, other Russian units will be brought in as well. Such an operation might in the first instance be intended to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and create Novorossiya.

More on the topic: Biden phones Zelenskyy amid Russian troop build-up along Ukrainian borders and escalation in Donbas

But Felgenhauer says, perhaps Moscow won’t go that far but instead, “will begin negotiating with the West as Putin usually does.” If Russia does invade, it is unclear how the West will react because it is divided about what to do and recognizes how large a commitment it would have to make to counter a Russian strike.

A Russian move might go as far as the Romanian border in order to “unblock Transdniestria,” the analyst says. But he adds that there is one piece of “good news” in all of this. Given Moscow’s current focus on Ukraine, it won’t be launching an attack on the Baltic countries anytime soon.

You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this. We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!