Moscow will be ready for a war against Ukraine ‘in a month,’ Felgenhauer says.

With the turn of the calendar and increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine and Russia and the West, Moscow will be ready to launch an attack on Ukraine “in a month,” although it remains far from certain whether it will take an action that could lead to a European or even world war, Pavel Felgenhauer says.

Pavel Felgenhauer

Pavel Felgenhauer, Russian military analyst

The prominent and independent Moscow military analyst says that clashes in the Donbas and the buildup in Russian forces just to the east of that region create the conditions which have the potential to lead to a wider war, although for the moment, only “the potential.” Whether things go further remains to be seen.

But one thing is already clear, Felgenhauer says, and it is this: the Western powers have no idea what to do in this situation. And the clock is ticking. “At the beginning of May, everything will be ready” for a Russian military advance. Those preparations have already been decided upon.

More on the topic: Putin claims right to territories of former Soviet republics

“Threats are growing and doing so rapidly,” he continues. “Much isn’t being discussed in the open press, but we are observing very bad signs.” Moscow has sent a naval group from the Baltic Sea through the English Channel to the south carrying enough marines for “a real ‘Normandy-style landing’” along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.

Many have pointed out that Ukraine is far better prepared to resist than it was in 2014, but they fail to note that Russia too is in a “much-better” position than it was seven years ago, Felgenhauer says. It has ‘overwhelming qualitative and quantitative supremacy,” and it has eliminated all competitors within the Donbas area.

Today, “the leaders of the ‘DNR’ and ‘LNR’ are fictions: they don’t command anything.” Instead, those areas are under the operational control of the staff of [Russia’s] Eighth Guards Army in Novocherkassk.” In addition, to the north, there is the 150th Russian division, an enormous force in its own right.

More on the topic: Biden phones Zelenskyy amid Russian troop build-up along Ukrainian borders and escalation in Donbas

In Crimea, he continues, there is the 22nd Army Corps of the Shore Forces of the Black Sea Fleet with its own shock tank brigade. In the event Moscow decides to launch a major offensive, other Russian units will be brought in as well. Such an operation might in the first instance be intended to deprive Ukraine of access to the sea and create Novorossiya.

But Felgenhauer says, perhaps Moscow won’t go that far but instead, “will begin negotiating with the West as Putin usually does.” If Russia does invade, it is unclear how the West will react because it is divided about what to do and recognizes how large a commitment it would have to make to counter a Russian strike.

A Russian move might go as far as the Romanian border in order to “unblock Transdniestria,” the analyst says. But he adds that there is one piece of “good news” in all of this. Given Moscow’s current focus on Ukraine, it won’t be launching an attack on the Baltic countries anytime soon.

Read More:

Enjoy reading Euromaidan Press? Become a patron and help us reach even more international readers!

Being a patron means you care about quality independent journalism, believe in an independent and democratic Ukraine, and like to look deep. And you can also vote for future articles, suggest topics, and keep in touch with the team.

For as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help us stay afloat and do more.

Become a patron>>>

Related

Tags: , , ,

Euromaidan Press

News and Opinion from Ukraine and Europe on Military and Political Developments.

http://euromaidanpress.com/

Related news

Putin regime “on the road to committing suicide,” Piontkovsky says.

Read also: Transfer of Russian military units towards Ukraine’s border to be finished by end of April, – Ukrainian Intel Putin doesn’t just want a little more territory in Ukraine, Piontkovsky says. He wants to control all of Ukraine, and Ukrainia...

Euromaidan Press

Tensions escalate in Donbas and on Ukrainian border.

As both sides accuse each other of initiating the present clashes (see EDM, April 5), talk is growing in Moscow, Kyiv, and in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk of a major escalation that may dramatically upend the present stalemate: Either the Ukrainia...

Euromaidan Press

Biden from the past responds to Dems today pushing court-packing - Hannity Montage.

Biden from the past responds to Dems today pushing court-packing - Hannity Montage.

'Hannity' shows a montage of Biden's prior court-packing comments. #FoxNews #Hannity Subscribe to Fox News! Watch more Fox News Video: Watch Fox News Channel Live: FOX News Channel (FNC) is a 24-hour all-encompassing news service delivering breaki...

Americans living below poverty line disproportionately impacted by pandemic.

Americans living below poverty line disproportionately impacted by pandemic.

New data shows that 15% of Americans became financially worse off during the pandemic. And most of those impacted were already living below the federal poverty line. Joseph Minarik, senior vice president and director of research for the Committee ...

Ingraham: Biden White House making US look weak on world stage.

Ingraham: Biden White House making US look weak on world stage.

'The Ingraham Angle' host examines the president's approach to diplomacy and foreign policy

Chicago on edge over fatal shooting of 13-year-old Adam Toledo.

Chicago on edge over fatal shooting of 13-year-old Adam Toledo.

Body camera footage released Thursday; FOX News' Jeff Paul reports on 'Fox News @ Night.' #FoxNews #Breaking

'Multiple victims' in shooting at Indianapolis FedEx facility: Report.

'Multiple victims' in shooting at Indianapolis FedEx facility: Report.

Witnesses report gun shots at Indianapolis Fedex; FOX News' Kevin Corke reports on 'Fox News @ Night.' #FoxNews #Breaking Subscribe to Fox News! Watch more Fox News Video: Watch Fox News Channel Live: FOX News Channel (FNC) is a 24-hour all-encomp...

Tom Cotton: China will not make a separate deal with US on climate change.

Tom Cotton: China will not make a separate deal with US on climate change.

Arkansas GOP senator slams John Kerry's negotiation strategy on 'The Ingraham Angle.' #FoxNews #Ingraham Subscribe to Fox News! Watch more Fox News Video: Watch Fox News Channel Live: FOX News Channel (FNC) is a 24-hour all-encompassing news servi...