Russo-Ukrainian war, day 803: Despite growing domestic production, Ukraine heavily depends on external military supplies to counter the “axis of evil”.

Exclusive

Ukraine’s battle crucial for dismantling global “axis of evil,” defense expert claims . Ukraine’s role in the global geopolitical chessboard is pivotal; if it falls to Russia, defense expert Mykhailo Samus warns, the resulting shift would empower an aggressive alliance led by China, North Korea, and Iran.

Military

Frontline report: New French AASM bombs deployed by Ukraine against Russian targets in occupied Kherson Oblast . Ukrainian forces are intensifying attacks on Russian positions in the Kherson region by employing guided bombs, including new French AASM munitions, against command posts, ammunition depots, and drone operators.

Ukrainian drones targeted Russian railway infrastructure in Kursk and Oryol Regions . The coordinated high-precision strike destroyed at least four substations simultaneously on 2 May. The attacks delay Russian logistics and, if systematic, will force Russians to use only diesel locomotives.

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief visits frontline amid intense fighting in the east . General Syrskyi spent two days visiting troops engaged in defensive operations in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.

Frontline report: Ukrainian counterattack disrupts Russian offensive near Bakhmut . Ukrainian forces conducted a series of attacks south of Ivanivske, successfully disrupting Russian efforts to push forward their offensive near Bakhmut.

Air Force: Russia amasses strategic missile reserve amid ongoing production for attacks on Ukraine . Russia has amassed nearly 40 hypersonic anti-ship Zircon missiles.

Ukrainian forces down 12 out of 13 Russian Shahed drones overnight . Despite Ukraine’s effective interception of drones, the attack damaged power infrastructure. In many Ukrainian regions missiles, shelling, guided bombs led to casualties among civilians.

Ukraine’s Magura V5 drone destroys Russian fast attack craft in Black Sea . This adds to previous hits on Russian ships such as Caesar Kunnikov, Sergey Kotov & the Ivan Khurs, etc.

Ukraine targets three Russian radar stations, two air defense systems over past day . On 5 May, Ukrainian forces continued repelling Russian attacks and targeting enemy personnel and military equipment.

ISW: Ukraine must seize initiative on battlefield to counter Russian advantages . Waiting until 2025 to launch a counteroffensive would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russia for over a year, allowing it to shape conditions, a new report warns.

Self-propelled howitzer duel: Ukraine’s Archer ACS destroyed Russian Msta-S in Luhansk Oblast (video) . Ukraine’s 45th Artillery Brigade utilized a Swedish Archer gun to destroy a camouflaged Russian howitzer in Luhansk Oblast.

Organizer of torture chambers in occupied Berdiansk dies in car blast . Yevgeny Ananyevsky, who reportedly set up torture chambers for Ukrainian prisoners at Berdiansk Penal Colony No. 77 in occupied southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, has been eliminated, per Ukrainian intelligence.

As of 06 May 2024 , the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 475300 (+1040)
    • Tanks: 7380 (+5)
    • APV: 14213 (+34)
    • Artillery systems: 12250 (+38)
    • MLRS: 1057
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 791 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 349
    • Helicopters: 325
    • UAV: 9683 (+47)
    • Cruise missiles : 2148 (+1)
    • Warships/boats: 26
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 16477 (+59)

Intelligence and technology

Ukraine receives new batch of Patriot missiles from allies, Spanish government confirms . Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said the missiles arrived last week.

Ukraine lacks $10 billion to contract all domestic weapons production capabilities — Minister .

Although Ukraine has resumed domestic production of artillery shells, supplies from partners will remain crucial — Minister . “No matter how much we produce and how much we increase our own capabilities, we will continue to depend on external supplies,” the Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin highlighted.

Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery restarts after Ukraine’s January attack — Reuters . The repairing of the refinery took almost 3 months.

Finnish intel: Russia’s goal is undermining Western backing for Ukraine . Finnish security chief assesses Russia’s core goal is weakening Western backing for Ukraine via potential sabotage and intimidation, while stating Finland is not a top Russian priority.

International

Belgium in talks with Ukraine on Bilateral Security Agreement . Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder announced this during the opening of the Defense Industry Forum in Brussels on 6 May 2024.

Polish Foreign Ministry: China can force Putin to end war in Ukraine . Polish FM Sikorski said “China could force Putin to stop this war.” But Sikorski sees no signs Putin wants to negotiate, believes war won’t end soon

Xi Jinping begins first European tour in five years in France with Russia’s war, EU trade at top of his agenda . After a trip to France, Chinese President Xi Jinping will also visit Serbia and Hungary, the countries with close ties with Russia.

PM Shmyhal says he still can’t confirm that new US military aid has arrived in Ukraine . Ukraine’s PM Denys Shmyhal reports no confirmation of crucial US military aid arrival, necessary for enhancing defensive operations and countering Russian advances.

Polish FM: Much better to spend the money on protecting Ukraine than on then having to rebuild it . Poland’s FM Sikorski says it’s better to fund protecting Ukraine’s infrastructure now rather than having to rebuild it after the war; and he supports Macron’s strategic ambiguity on deploying NATO troops in Ukraine.

Ukraine won’t recognize Putin as legitimate and calls for international non-recognition — MFA . Russia is set to hold an inauguration ceremony for Vladimir Putin on 7 May, starting his 25th year as Russia’s leader.

Humanitarian and social impact

Recent Russian missile strikes caused over $ 1 billion in losses to Ukraine’s energy sector . While the energy system currently is working stable, the situation remains complex, the Ukrainian minister says.

Russia hits central Kharkiv with three gliding bombs, injuring at least ten civilians . Russia has bombarded Kharkiv again with three aerial bombs, injuring at least 10 civilians. The city is continuously targeted since 2022. Today’s attack targeted residential areas in the Shevchenkivskyi district.

Political and legal developments

Ukrainian PM warns of ‘third world war’ if Russia prevails . Shmyhal also emphasized in the interview that currently Ukraine is seeking for military equipment, not troops from partners.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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