Ukraine may receive the next IMF tranche worth about $1.4 billion in October-December.
“We believe that the IMF will pay [Ukraine] a tranche of $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, but is considering a possible range of this amount from $1 billion to $1.5 billion,” J.P. Morgan says in the EMEA EM Emerging Markets research, Kyiv Post reports.
As reported, the IMF and Ukraine currently have a Stand-By Arrangement to the tune of about $5 billion, signed in June last year. Kyiv immediately received the first tranche in the amount of about $2.1 billion, but subsequent disbursements have not yet arrived in Ukraine. The NBU hopes that the current SBA, designed for 18 months, will be extended for another period of six to nine months. The Ukrainian side is currently negotiating this issue with the International Monetary Fund.
On October 12, the International Monetary Fund presented its World Economic Outlook. According to the document, the IMF downgraded Ukraine's GDP growth forecast by 20% for 2021 but slightly upgraded its estimate for 2022.