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State budget deficit in 2021 may come to UAH 170 bln instead of planned UAH 220 bln - KSE.

The deficit of the state budget of Ukraine in 2021 may amount to UAH 170 billion with an annual plan of UAH 220 billion, Daryna Marchak, the head of the center for analysis of public finance and public administration of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), said.

"According to our estimates, at the end of 2021, the deficit of the general fund of the state budget will be slightly lower than provided for by the law on the state budget, due to cost savings (which we expect at the level of 3% of the expenditure part of the budget general fund) and debt payments," Marchak said.

At the same time, even under such circumstances, financing the state budget deficit requires intensifying debt borrowings by the Ministry of Finance, which is difficult to implement without active cooperation with the International Monetary Fund and access to foreign markets, she added.

According to the center's estimates, in January-November 2021, the deficit of the state budget of Ukraine will be about UAH 115 billion. To finance such a deficit and the planned repayment of the state debt (UAH 64.4 billion), the Ministry of Finance will need to borrow UAH 180 billion over the last two months of the year, or an average of UAH 90 billion per month. At the same time, in January-October, the average monthly borrowing amounted to about UAH 40 billion, Marchak notes.

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