Weather continues to significantly affect military operations, with worst offensive conditions expected in March – UK intelligence.

Weather continues to play a significant role in the course of Russia's war in Ukraine, according to a defense intelligence statement published on Twitter by the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on Thursday morning.

"With the ground frozen, there has likely been little change in cross country mobility (CCM) conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks. On February 8, 2023, surface temperatures were around 0 degrees Celsius; over the coming week, forecasts suggest soil temperature increases and snow melt are likely to deteriorate CCM across Donbas," the defense intelligence said.

At the same time, it is noted that in the middle to the end of March it will most likely be extremely muddy and the CCM will be the worst. "Commanders on both sides will highly likely seek to avoid scheduling major offensives at such times. However, perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns, as demonstrated by Russia launching its invasion in late-February 2022," British intelligence said.

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