If the Ukrainian government introduces a full lockdown across the country, the drop in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 will amount to 3.7%, not 7% as predicted.
Thus, stricter quarantine's blow on the economy will not be too devastating, Ukrainian economist with the Ukraine Economic Outlook, Mykhailo Kukhar, has told a panel talk show Pravo na Vladu [Right to Power].
The fall in GDP in the event of a lockdown, the expert adds, will not be greater than it was this spring.
Read also Minister Kryklii assures public transport will work during new lockdown "Of course, this is a year of recession," Kukhar stresses. "Of course, this is a 5.2% loss of GDP."
Despite this, the expert notes, "we survived the crisis, the last month remained, and it was much better than expected."
"If we look at the forecasts, at the IMF memorandum, even at the current forecast of the National Bank [...] expectations were for a 7% fall of GDP in the fourth quarter. It will not exceed 3.7%," Kukhar has predicted.
The expert suggests that a lockdown may be introduced in early December.
On a separate note, Kukhar noted that next year, Ukraine's economy will start rebounding.
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