Under the base-case scenario, the hryvnia may devaluate to UAH 30 per the U.S. dollar at the end of the year.
Photo from UNIAN
President of the European Business Association (EBA), CEO of Dragon Capital Tomas Fiala says Dragon Capital forecasts that depending on the duration of the quarantine over the coronavirus, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) may shrink within 4%-9% by the end of 2020.
"We expect under the base-case scenario, where the quarantine is to end in two months longest possible, the economy may fall by 4%, while the hryvnia may devaluate to UAH 30 per the U.S. dollar at the end of the year, with the average rate being UAH 29 per dollar," he said during a video conference on March 24.
While preparing the basic version of the forecast, Dragon Capital has taken into account that the global economy will shrink by 1%-2%, while the peak of coronavirus cases in Ukraine is expected in the middle of May, he said.
According to Fiala, the worst-case scenario assumes that the peak of COVID-19 cases will be observed this summer. Given this, the GDP decline is expected to be 9%, while the official hryvnia may weaken to UAH 35 per dollar.
As UNIAN reported earlier, the growth of Ukraine's real GDP in 2019 slowed from 3.4% in 2018 to 3.2%, the highest figure over the past seven years.