Vacation period, increasing COVID-19 incidence in Europe are external threat to situation with COVID-19 in Ukraine – KSE.

The increase in the incidence of coronavirus (COVID-19) in European countries and the holiday season are an external threat to the situation with COVID-19 in Ukraine, experts from Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) said.

"The growth of the incidence in Europe is accelerating the incidence increased by 44% in a week. Accordingly, the vacation period is an external threat for Ukraine. The outbreak in Ukraine may already be at the end of July-August, depending on how much the British, South African and Indian variants will spread," Head of the KSE Health Economics Center said Yuriy Hanychenkov said on Tuesday during an online presentation of an analysis of the situation with COVID-19 spread.

According to him, the outbreak in the UK has already reached the peak of the autumn wave, and Spain has caught up with the incidence rate in Russia and Portugal in a week.

Experts associate the increase in Spain with the incidence among young people who are not vaccinated, and note the need for vaccination.

"According to a study by British scientists, vaccination remains effective, in particular when we talk about two doses. Despite the rapid increase in morbidity in the UK, hospitalizations and mortality remain at a controlled level. This means that if there are vaccinated among the sick, then the vaccine protects against severe disease," Hanychenkov said.

At the same time, according to him, the situation in Ukraine in relatively large European countries is gradually improving.

"There are no signs of an outbreak in Ukraine, mortality continues to fall. The occupancy of COVID-19 beds is at one of the lowest levels ever in Ukraine: resuscitation beds are occupied by 15%, beds with oxygen by 9%, ventilators by 3%," the expert said.

At the same time, he said that Ukraine is still lagging behind the national vaccination plan and it is necessary to increase the rate of vaccination and its coverage. According to him, the vaccination rate is currently 5.4%.

"Ukraine has four times underfulfilled this plan in June. In order to implement the national plan, it is necessary to carry out 250,000 vaccinations per day, currently an average of 71,000 vaccinations are being carried out. It is absolutely realistic to increase the pace based on the average European vaccination rate," Hanychenkov said.

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