It took Red Army ‘a decade’ to subdue Western Ukraine after 1945, Russian specialist on Ukraine warns Kremlin.

Anyone thinking about a Russian invasion of Ukraine today should remember that it took the Red Army at the height of its power at the end of World War II “almost a decade” to pacify Western Ukraine, Viktor Mironenko says. Indeed, an invasion now could lead to “a Russian Vietnam or a new Afghanistan.”

Related: 80 years since the foundation of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA): the glory, the mistakes, and the sins

The director of the Center for Ukrainian Research at the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences argues that unfortunately Kremlin policy now is being formulated by people who don’t remember the past and are operating on illusions about the strength of Russian arms and the weakness of Ukraine.

Independence Day Parade in Kyiv, Ukraine. 24 August 2021. Photo: Youtube

Mironenko’s comments came at a roundtable of political and military experts organized by the Rosbalt news agency. Other participants were divided on what the Kremlin is thinking and what may lie ahead. Independent military expert Pavel Felgenhauer argued that “for a large regional war, today everything is ready in Russia.”

But former Duma deputy Ilya Ponomaryev said that he “does not see any logic” in such a move by the Kremlin.” Of course, Moscow wants to manipulate Ukraine; but “after Afghanistan, the Americans cannot allow themselves any foreign policy fiascos” and so Russian leaders know that the US would lead resistance to any Russian invasion.

Photo: mil.gov.ua

The Kremlin’s threatening language has already given Moscow something it very much wants: more Western sanctions on Belarus, something that Vladimir Putin hopes will force Belarus to unite with Russia and give him a new post, head of a union state, to occupy after 2024.

Historian Elena Galkina says the probability of a large war between Russia and Ukraine is about “10 percent.” Moscow may have prepared its military but it hasn’t taken the usual steps to prepare its own population. “The population of Russia is much less prepared for war than it was in 2013.”

[quote]At that time, “Russians believed that half of Ukraine loves us; but now there are no such illusions … [and] today, fewer Russians are aggressively inclined.” Moreover, the costs of occupying Crimea are on everyone’s mind. The costs from an expanded war would certainly be even higher.[/quote]

During the joint military training in Ukraine Rapid Trident. Source: yavoriv-info.com.ua

Sociologist Pavel Kudyukin , however, warns that no one should “overrate the rationality of thinking in the Kremlin,” especially as the center of decision making has shifted from the Presidential Administration to the Russian Security Council where the siloviki are dominant rather than experts on the domestic situation.

And Marina Shapovalova , a writer and economist, says that media hype about the war has been “exclusively in the information field” rather than more broadly as one would expect if Russia were really going to invade. Moscow wants to ensure that Ukraine is never in NATO but doesn’t need to occupy and attempt to pacify it to achieve that end.

Photo: mil.gov.ua

People “both in Russia and Ukraine are afraid of war, although in Ukraine, there is a definite stratum of citizens who are ready to fight for their motherland. In the Russian Federation, there are almost none of these to the extent that no one has attacked their country.”

In a separate comment, Rosbalt commentator Sergey Shelin suggests there is another constraint on Kremlin plans: “Russians do not want to go into battle with Europe on the side of Lukashenka.” They know how the West would react to that, and yet that alliance against Ukraine is precisely what Putin is talking about.

Read More:

• Russia downscales demands to keeping Ukraine, Georgia out of NATO
• US clears Baltic States, Britain to send American-made weapons to Ukraine: media
• What we know about the “light anti-tank weapons” UK started supplying to Ukraine
• Ukrainians ask to personally join NATO, offer private land for NATO base
• Ukraine warns of yet another planned false-flag attack on 19 January
• New Russian aggression in Ukraine will lead not just to sanctions but to a new Iron Curtain, Skobov says
• Russia seeks to maintain its global status by making threats and keeping others off guard, Shevtsova says

You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this. We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!