A tropical cyclone is currently being monitored as it tracks across the Atlantic Ocean. The newest storm comes less than two weeks after the Category 5 Hurricane Dorian ransacked the northern islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco, devastating the region. Forecasters predict the storm will become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today. But will the disturbance slam the northeastern US coast states of New York and New Jersey?
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The Bahamian government has issued a tropical storm warning for northwestern Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The Tropical Storm Warning that is in effect means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
The disturbance being monitored by the NOAA and named potential tropical cyclone nine is forecast to produce total rain accumulations of two to four inches through Sunday over the Bahamas. Isolated maximum amounts could total six inches in the northwest and central Bahamas.
As of 2pm EDT (7pm BST) the NHC recorded the storm’s location as near latitude 25.4 north, longitude 74.2 west which is approximately 280 miles east southeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and 190 miles east southeast of Great Abaco Island.Hurricane tracker latest: Is tropical cyclone nine forecast to hit New York and New Jersey?
The advisory reads: “The system has been meandering during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the northwest and north-northwest later today.
"On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight, and along or near the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.
"Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
"Preliminary data from an Air Force Reconnaissance plane indicate that the disturbance is becoming better organised, and is anticipated that a tropical depression or a tropical storm will likely form later today or tonight."
Environmental conditions are favourable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or tonight, with a 90 percent chance of either forming over 48 hours or five days.
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But will the storm hit New York or New Jersey?
According to the NOAA, the storm is currently stationary but is forecast to move towards the US east coast.
Forecasters say the disturbance could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall to portions of the Florida east coast this weekend.
The most recent earliest reasonable arrival time map for tropical storm-force winds predicts that the northernmost US region the tropical-storm force winds will reach is Virginia.Hurricane tracker latest: A map from the NOAA showing the forecast path of the storm Hurricane tracker latest: A map showing the predicted arrival times for tropical-storm force winds
However, as the storm develops the path can be changeable and it may mean some of the storms effects will impact the region.
But so far, the NHC predicts the worst hazards of the storm to be strong winds and heavy rainfall.
The tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night.
The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:
- The Bahamas: two to four inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches
- The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South Carolina: two to four inches.