The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in the updated Inflation Report published on the website again worsened the estimate of the growth of Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 (hereinafter compared to the same period in 2020), to 7.5% from 8.7% in April and from 11.3% in the January report.
The negative impact of last year's low harvest on exports, the food industry and agriculture (in particular, livestock farming due to a decrease in profitability as a result of higher prices for feed) remained. The negative conditions influenced agriculture and a later start of the harvesting (one week later), the National Bank said, explaining the deterioration of the assessment.
The NBU also revised its forecast for GDP dynamics in the second half of this year. If in April he expected economic growth in the third and fourth quarters, respectively, by 4.2% and 3.6%, now – by 3.6% and 5.8%.
"The key risks to the macroeconomic forecast are the imposition of stricter quarantine measures in Ukraine and globally, and a longer and more pronounced than expected surge in global inflation," the National Bank said.
As reported, in general, the NBU confirmed the forecast for GDP growth for 2021 at 3.8% and for 2022-2023 at 4%.
According to the report, the central bank expects the economy to expand by 6.7% in the first and second quarters of next year, slowing to 2.8% in the third and to 1% in the fourth quarters.