Euromaidan Press
News and Opinion from Ukraine and Europe on Military and Political Developments.
Invading Ukraine now could spark protests that would threaten Putin regime, Russian commentator says.
If the Kremlin decides to invade Ukraine now, that would likely spark massive protests inside of Russia, Aleksandr Zhelenin says. And even if they were suppressed harshly as would likely happen, that could have the unintended result of leading to the transformation of a foreign war into a domestic civil one.
The Rosbalt commentator says that given the uncertainties of any such conflict, no one in the Russian leadership can deny this possibility; and therefore it is another reason for launching a massive new war that instead of preserving the Putin regime could undermine it. “Is the Kremlin prepared to take such a risk?”
- More on ongoing Russian troop buildup: Four Ukrainian soldiers killed in Donbas as Russia continues troop buildup and escalates propaganda
Russian military build-up near Ukrainian borders and in Crimea. The markers show the locations of late March – early April videos showing the convoys of Russian heavy equipment on move. Source.
Zhelenin has argued before that Putin is unlikely to launch a war because of circumstances both in Ukraine and in Russia. In his latest offering, he repeats some of what he has said before and adds new arguments for his position.
A major reason, he says, is that the situation now in both countries is very different from what it was in 2014. Then, many in the Kremlin were “sincerely convinced that Ukraine was in the process of falling apart,” a view they held because of their belief that “a revolution always leads to the disintegration of the country,” as it in fact did in Russia in 1917 and 1991.
Now, it is clear even to the men in the Kremlin that the political situation in Ukraine is stable. And perhaps even more important, Moscow can see that the Ukrainian army is a very different force now than it was seven years ago. Then it was a crowd in uniform; now it is a real army with better training, better weapons, and better international support.
More than that, in 2014, Ukraine and the world were taken unaware by what Moscow did. Now, both are prepared for the Russian government to try a reprise, are ready for it, and will thus be better able to defend their positions and to inflict far greater losses, perhaps even unacceptable ones on Russian forces.
But perhaps even more important to the calculations of the Kremlin is that the situation in Russian society is very different now than it was seven years ago. Television is losing out to the Internet, and that means Kremlin propaganda is losing out to the appeals of its opponents as the mass demonstrations for Aleksey Navalny showed.
Even in 2014, Russian military action in Ukraine led to protests in Russia, Zhelenin notes; and there is every possibility that a new move by Moscow there would lead to even larger ones especially since there is no equivalent place to Crimea for Russian forces to seize and no plausible explanation for a move that Russians would accept uncritically.
Given that the Ukrainian army with its better training and better arms and Kyiv with its sense that it has the West behind it, that force would certainly be able to inflict far greater casualties on the Russian military and those would echo at home, especially at a time when Russians are already suffering from the pandemic and a declining standard of living.
All this is true despite the facts that the Russian military is quantitively and qualitatively superior to the Ukrainian one and that the Russian government still has the resources to crush any dissent. But an invasion could lead to some unpredictable consequences, and Zhelenin suggests that few in the Kremlin are prepared to take such risks now.
Read more:
- Four Ukrainian soldiers killed in Donbas as Russia continues troop buildup and escalates propaganda
- Disinformation build-up: pro-Kremlin media reinvigorate their focus on Ukraine
- War scare is Putin’s natural element
- Amidst Russia’s loud sabre-rattling, US delivers military hardware to Ukraine
- Ukraine’s Territorial Defense volunteers prepare to support army in case of Russian invasion
- Moscow will be ready for a war against Ukraine ‘in a month,’ Feldenhauer says
- Biden phones Zelenskyy amid Russian troop build-up along Ukrainian borders and escalation in Donbas
You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this. We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!
Overnight drone attack on Russia targets oil depot, energy infrastructure.
A Lukoil oil depot in Smolensk Oblast is in flames as Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that 50 drones were downed in the night
“Week-long ambush” preceded historic Russian Tu-22 bomber downing, Ukraine intel chief says, confirming S-200 use.
Ukraine's military intelligence chief reveals details of the successful operation to down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber, confirms the use of the S-200 surface-to-air missile.
Russo-Ukrainian war, day 786: Russian missiles strike Dnipro, killing 8; Ukraine retaliates by downing Tu-22M3 bomber.
Russian missiles struck Dnipro Oblast, killing 8 civilians, while Ukrainian forces achieved a historic milestone by shooting down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber for the first time.
US House overcomes key procedural step, clearing path to vote on Ukraine aid bill.
The bills providing military aid and other assistance to Kyiv will be voted on 20 April evening, alongside aid packages for Israel and Taiwan.
German Quantum-Systems opens its drone factory in Ukraine.
German company Quantum-Systems GmbH's drone factory is going to manufacture 1,000 reconnaissance drones per year, including the production of spare parts.
'No comment' from defence secretary after another Tory MP loses whip.
Mark Menzies MP has lost the Conservative Party whip after allegedly misusing party funds. Mr Menzies denied claims in The Times newspaper that he asked party members for money and then repaid them using campaign funds. Defence Secretary Grant Sha...
Watch live: Leaders arrive in Brussels for the EU Summit focused on economic and social issues.
Watch live from Brussels as leaders come together ahead of the final day of a two-day summit focused on economic and social issues. More here: #Brussels #EU #Summit #EuropeanUnion SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube channel for more videos: Follow us on Twit...
Paris Olympics: Opening ceremony could be scaled down - warns Macron.
With 100 days to go until the start of the Paris Olympics, French President Emmanuel Macron has warned the opening ceremony could be moved from its planned riverside location if the security risk is too high. The 26 July event is set to be the fir...
An elephant broke free from a traveling circus in the US - DW News.
Subscribe: For more news go to: Follow DW on social media: ►Facebook: ►Twitter: ►Instagram: ►Twitch: Für Videos in deutscher Sprache besuchen Sie: #dwnewsshorts
Latest on the arrest of two alleged spies in the German state of Bavaria - DW News.
Police in southern Germany have arrested two suspected Russian spies. Prosecutors say the two dual German-Russian nationals were taken into custody in the city of Bayreuth. They're accused of plotting sabotage attacks designed to undermine militar...
Sen. John Kennedy: Biden has screwed this up royally
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., joined 'Fox & Friends' to discuss the latest on the conflict in the Middle East as the world waits for Israel's response to Iran's attack and the latest on Republicans'' effort to impeach DHS Secretary Mayorkas. #FoxNews ...