EBRD: Ukraine’s GDP to contract by 5.5 per cent in 2020

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts a 5.5% decline in Ukraine's GDP this year and recovery of 3% in 2021.

“Despite the challenging environment, a credible monetary policy has preserved macroeconomic stability, and the new IMF programme agreed in the midst of the pandemic has further stabilised expectations and mobilized substantial financing from the official sector and private investors. High-frequency indicators suggest that economic activity reached the floor in April, and has been gradually recovering. GDP is forecast to contract by 5.5 per cent in 2020, followed by a recovery of 3.0 per cent in 2021,” reads the EBRD report.

As the EBRD noted, risks to the downside remain considerable, reflecting uncertainty about future social distancing as well as policy and structural reform commitments during an extremely challenging time.

Earlier, EBRD forecasted that Ukraine’s economy would shrink by 4.5% at the end of the year.

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