Euromaidan Press

News and Opinion from Ukraine and Europe on Military and Political Developments.

More news

Russia likely preparing decisive strategic action in Ukraine in the next six months – ISW.

[editorial]The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

says

that the Kremlin is likely preparing to conduct a

“decisive strategic action in the next six months intended to regain the initiative and end Ukraine’s current string of operational successes.”

Here we publish key points from ISW’s January 15

assessment

of the Russian offensive campaign. [/editorial]

Russia has failed to achieve most of its major operational objectives in Ukraine over the past eleven months. Russian forces failed to capture Kyiv, as well as Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and to maintain gains in Kharkiv Oblast or hold the strategic city of Kherson. The Russian air and missile campaign targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure under Army General Sergey Surovikin in late 2022 also failed to generate significant operational effects or demoralize Ukrainian society, as the Kremlin likely intended. Putin and senior Kremlin officials continue reiterating that Russia has not abandoned its maximalist objectives despite Russian defeats on the battlefield.

While Putin has not changed his objectives for the war, there is emerging evidence that he is changing fundamental aspects of Russia’s approach to the war by undertaking several new lines of effort.

ISW has observed several Russian lines of effort (LOEs) likely intended to support a decisive action in the next six months:

  • LOE 1: The Kremlin is intensifying both near- and long-term force-generation efforts.
  • LOE 2: The Russian military is conserving mobilized personnel for future use — an inflection from the Kremlin’s initial approach of rushing untrained bodies to the front in fall 2022.
  • LOE 3: Russia is attempting to reinvigorate its defense industrial base (DIB).
  • LOE 4: Putin is re-centralizing control of the war effort in Ukraine under the Ministry of Defense and appointed Russia’s senior-most uniformed officer, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, as theater commander.
  • LOE 5: The Kremlin is intensifying its conditioning of the Russian information space to support the war.

The Kremlin’s effort to prepare for a likely intended decisive strategic action in 2023 is not mutually exclusive with the Kremlin’s efforts to set conditions for a protracted war.

Russia’s decisive strategic action in 2023 can manifest itself in multiple possible courses of action (COAs) that are not mutually exclusive. According to US military doctrine, a military can undertake a decisive action at every level of war to produce a definitive result and achieve an objective. Decisive actions can be at the tactical, operational, or strategic level and can be either offensive or defensive.

  • COA 1: A major Russian offensive, most likely in the Luhansk Oblast area.
  • COA 2: A Russian defensive operation to defeat and exploit a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a Russian offensive against northern Ukraine remains unlikely at this time. However, the Kremlin is creating planning flexibility and will likely expand Russia’s military presence in Belarus in the period leading up to planned major exercises (which could possibly support a combat operation) in September 2023.

The Kremlin retains its maximalist goals to seize all of Ukraine, despite its poor conduct of the war to date. Russian forces remain dangerous, and Ukraine requires sustained support.

Read also:

Ammo shortages likely to hinder Russia’s ability to sustain offensive operations in 2023 – ISW

Russia continues to weaponize religion to perpetuate long-standing info ops and discredit Ukraine – ISW

Russia to struggle to keep pace of operations as it burns through its artillery ammo stocks – ISW

You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this. We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!

Guatemalan president calls on U.S. to invest more to deter migration

Guatemalan president calls on U.S. to invest more to deter migration

Migrants are coming to the U.S.-Mexico border in record numbers. Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo spoke with CBS News senior White House and political correspondent Ed O'Keefe about the issue. CBS News Streaming Network is the premier 24/7 an...

CBS News -

Abdul Ezedi: Christian group wants vetting asylum seekers system strengthened.

Abdul Ezedi: Christian group wants vetting asylum seekers system strengthened.

A leading Christian campaign group has said that the system for vetting asylum seekers - who are basing their claim on having converted to Christianity - needs to be strengthened. It comes after Sky News obtained documents, showing the detailed ar...

Sky News -

Joe Lieberman, former Connecticut senator and Gore VP pick, dies at 82.

Joe Lieberman, former Connecticut senator and Gore VP pick, dies at 82.

Former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman has died at 82 years old. Lieberman served in the Senate for more than two decades and was on Al Gore's 2000 presidential ticket. CBS News political contributor and Democratic strategist Joel Payne joins with ...

CBS News -

Meet the Press NOW — March 27

Meet the Press NOW — March 27

A recovery mission and investigation are underway in Baltimore after the Francis Scott Key Bridge partially collapsed yesterday. NBC News Correspondent Garrett Haake spoke with newly-appointed RNC co-chair Lara Trump about the 2020 election result...

NBC News -

Press Preview: Thursday's papers

Press Preview: Thursday's papers

We take a first look at Thursday's front pages with the associate editor of the Daily Mirror, Kevin Maguire and the Whitehall editor for the Daily Mail, Claire Ellicott. #presspreview SUBSCRIBE to our YouTube channel for more videos: Follow us on ...

Sky News -

Judge Jeanine: KJP snapped when pressed on Biden's mental decline.

Judge Jeanine: KJP snapped when pressed on Biden's mental decline.

'The Five' co-hosts react to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre ending an interview with 99.3 WBT Charlotte ahead of President Biden’s visit to Raleigh, N.C. Subscribe to Fox News! Watch more Fox News Video: Watch Fox News Channel Live...

Fox News -