In the coming weeks, Russian offensive operations are likely to stall, whether or not Russian forces capture the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
The relevant statement was made by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in the Russian offensive campaign assessment of June 23, 2022, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
According to the ISW, this will grant Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch “prudent counteroffensives”.
“The Kremlin’s ideological fixation on the capture of Sievierodonetsk, much like the earlier siege of Azovstal, will likely be to the ultimate detriment of Russian capabilities in future advances in Ukraine,” the ISW experts noted.
Based on their estimates, the loss of Sievierodonetsk is a loss for Ukraine in the sense that any terrain captured by Russian forces is a loss, but the battle of Sievierodonetsk will not be a decisive Russian victory.
Russian troops have made substantial gains in the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk area in recent days. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective in the battle by slowing down and degrading Russian forces.
Ukrainian troops have succeeded for weeks in drawing substantial quantities of Russian personnel, weapons, and equipment into the area and have likely degraded Russian forces’ overall capabilities while preventing Russian forces from focusing on more advantageous axes of advance.
A reminder that, in the Sievierodonetsk direction, Russian troops seized such settlements as Loskutivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka. The enemy continues assault operations to gain control over Syrotyne and is preparing to force a crossing over the Siverskyi Donets.