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Russo-Ukrainian war, day 107: Russia outguns Ukraine by 10-15 times; three countries oppose Ukraine’s EU candidacy bid.

A “court” of the Russian proxy “Donetsk People’s Republic” sentenced to death three foreign volunteers who served in the Ukrainian armed forces. Russian forces are still storming Sievierodonetsk. 150-300 MLRS systems from the US will allow Ukraine to effectively liberate occupied territories, says Ukraine’s presidential advisor. Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Three countries oppose granting Ukraine EU candidate status on 23-24 June.

Evening report day 107 – June 10

An overview of the situation based on observations by Roman Ponomarenko and recent updates:

Russo-Ukrainian war, day 107: Russia outguns Ukraine by 10-15 times; three countries oppose Ukraine’s EU candidacy bid ~~

In the so-called DNR, a “court” sentenced to death three foreign volunteers who served in the Ukrainian armed forces and were taken prisoner in Mariupol . These are two British citizens and one Moroccan citizen. The trial lasted only one day, which only shows that it has nothing to do with the basic principles of justice. This is a signal to Ukraine, which faces the task of returning its soldiers from Azovstal . The foreigners’ lawyer has already stated that the verdict will be appealed, so the “demonstrative show” will continue.

Sloviansk, Donetsk Oblast. On 9 June, the command of the so-called DNR announced the beginning of the fighting for Sloviansk. The statement sounded unrealistic because the Russian military is on the far approach, and no tendencies of their breakthrough in Ukrainian defense can be seen. Besides, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have transformed the Sloviansk district into a powerful fortified district. That is, basically, Ukraine will only benefit if Russia launches a frontal assault there. The Russians have already used a similar practice. For almost three months they stormed Ukrainian fortified defenses near Horlivka and Donetsk, where they did not break through but suffered heavy losses. Meanwhile, fighting continues in the east and north of Sloviansk , where the Russians are storming Dovhenke , trying to reach Bohorodychnyi and Raihorodok .

Russo-Ukrainian war, day 107: Russia outguns Ukraine by 10-15 times; three countries oppose Ukraine’s EU candidacy bid ~~

Luhansk Oblast. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to heroically defend Sievierodonetsk, Ustynivka, Toshkivka, the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, Zolote, and Pylypchatyno area. Despite Russia’s efforts and resources, it fails to achieve any significant success.

Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolayiv, and Kherson oblasts. No significant changes. Rumors of a “successful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kherson” continue to circulate, without any specific visualization of the successes achieved.[/editorial]

Information from the General Staff of Ukraine as of 18.00 10.06.2022, supplemented by the 06.00 10.06.2022 update, is in the drop-down menu.

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In the Kharkiv direction, Russia is trying to prevent the advance of the Ukrainian defense forces in the direction of the state border. Russia fired mortars, artillery, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers at Ukrainian units in the areas of Kharkiv, Krynychna, Husarivka, Bayrak, and Chepil. Russia is fighting with forces of up to 30 battalion tactical groups in the Slobozhanskyi direction.

In the Sloviansk direction, Russian units are preparing to resume the offensive on the city of Sloviansk. Russia fired artillery at the settlements of Dolyna, Chervona Polyana, Nova Dmytrivka, Hrushuvakha and Dibrivne.

In the Sievierodonetsk direction, Russian forces are storming in order to establish full control over the city of Sievierodonetsk and create conditions for the blockade of the Ukrainian units. The fighting continues. Russia fired artillery at the settlements of Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk, Ustynivka, Toshkivka, Zolote, and Hirske.

In the Bakhmut direction, Russian shelling was recorded near New York, Zolote, Vrubovka, Komyshuvakha, Berestove, and Luhanske.

Russian invaders did not take decisive action in the Avdyivka, Kurakhiv, Novopavliv, and Zaporizhzhia areas. They fired mortars, artillery, and jet artillery in the areas of Avdyivka, Tonenke, Nevelske, Marinka, Orikhiv, Opytne, and Novobakhmutivka. Russia launched air strikes using Su-25 aircraft near Marinka and Krasnohorivka and Ka-52 helicopters near Novobakhmutivka and Mi-8 near Oleksandropil. In the Novopavlivsk direction, the enemy strengthened the grouping of its troops.

Russian forces did not wage active hostilities in the Lyman direction. They continue to consolidate in the area of ​​ Sviatohirsk and take measures to continue the offensive in the direction of the Lyman–Sloviansk. Russian forces fired near Dronivka and Serebrianka.

In the southern direction, Russian forces continue defense measures. Russian troops continue to improve the fortification equipment of the second and third lines of defense and carry out camouflage measures. In particular, the establishment of mine barriers in the area of the settlement of Vysokopillia (Kherson Oblast) has been noted.

In the Volyn and Polissia directions, it has been confirmed that the units of the special brigade of the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus are involved in border protection in the Gomel region.

In the Bessarabian direction, the situation has not changed significantly.

In the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, Russia is focusing its efforts on blocking civilian shipping. In the Black Sea, the carriers of the Caliber naval base cruise missiles are ready for use. Units of the defense forces of Ukraine continue to inflict significant losses on Russian troops and maintain a stable defense in all directions.

It is increasingly difficult for Russia to replenish units that have suffered losses as a result of the war on Ukraine’s territory. Russia is trying to solve the problem of recruitment by promising favorable financial conditions and introducing short-term contracts for military service. The Russian occupiers themselves call such contracts “one way.”

It also became known that due to the losses received during the fighting with Ukrainian defenders in the Kharkiv region, the motorized infantry unit of the 1st Russian Army Corps in full refused to participate in hostilities.

Russians are again trying to cross Siverskyi Donets river . They are looking for weaknesses in Ukrainian defense along the right bank of the river in Donbas, looking for Ukrainian artillery. However, this is a difficult operation, a spokesman of the Ukrainian MoD said.

Farmers in occupied Kherson Oblast opened fire and killed Russian occupiers who intended to steal their combine, Ukrainian media Telegraf reports. Farmers say occupiers make them sell produce for nothing and grow new harvest. “We try to unite & wait for liberation,” they said.

Russian occupiers need more refrigerators for storing corpses of soldiers in Melitopol – Ukrainian intelligence states. The city meat factory fridges are overfilled, so the occupiers “borrowed free of charge,” a.k.a. expropriated, the facilities of local a business to store corpses of soldiers KIA in battles at Huliaipole.

The Kremlin is using real neo-Nazis to prosecute its war in Ukraine, undermining still further Russian justifications for starting the full-scale war of aggression against its neighbor, Der Spiegel says, citing German intelligence findings.

150-300 MLRS systems from the US will allow Ukraine to effectively liberate occupied territories, Zelenskyy’s top advisor said on air of BBC Newshour. “We understand very well concerns of partners that we will carry out strikes on Russian territory but it won’t happen,” Mykhailo Podoliak noted.

Podoliak added that Ukraine loses 100 to 200 soldiers every day because of the lack of artillery in comparison to Russian forces. That is why high volumes of artillery are an objective need in the current military situation.

He noted that while only the full de-occupation of Ukraine will end the war, because Minsk ceasefire agreement [negotiated in 2014-2015 which allowed Russia to establish keep de-facto occupied land as part of two proxy “republics” in eastern Ukraine] didn’t end the previous conflict. As long as there are occupied territories, Russia can resume the conflict, he stated; however, right now Ukraine’s minimum requirement is for Russia to return to 24 February positions.

“Until Russia suffers serious military defeat no form of dialog is possible, they will continue trying to take…our country. The Ukrainian tactic is to exhaust Russian forces as much as possible until enough weapons come from partners,” Podoliak added.

Ukraine has almost run out of its artillery ammunition and relies on NATO standard shells, Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky told The Guardian. It needs 5,000-6,000 shells per day. Ukraine has one artillery piece for 10-15 Russian ones,

According toBritish Defence Intelligence, (last 24 hours):

  • Fighting continues around Sieverodonetsk. Russia is again in control of most of the city, but its forces have made little progress in attempts to encircle the wider area from the north and south.
  • Russia is struggling to provide basic public services to the population in Russian-occupied territories. Access to safe drinking water has been inconsistent, while major disruption to telephone and internet services continues.
  • There is likely a critical shortage of medicines in Kherson, while Mariupol is at risk of a major cholera outbreak. Isolated cases of cholera have been reported since May. Ukraine suffered a major cholera epidemic in 1995 and has experienced minor outbreaks since, especially around the Azov Sea coast – which includes Mariupol. Medical services in Mariupol are likely already near collapse: a major cholera outbreak in Mariupol will exacerbate this further.

As of Friday 10 June morning, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

Зображення
  • Personnel – more than 31900 (+200),
  • Tanks – 1409 (+11),
  • Armoured combat vehicles – 3450 (+12),
  • Artillery systems – 712 (+1),
  • Multiple rocket launchers –MLRS – 222 (+9),
  • Air defence means – 97 (+1),
  • Aircraft – 212 (+0),
  • Helicopters – 178 (+0),
  • Automotive technology and fuel tanks – 2438 (+17),
  • Vessels/boats – 13 (+0),
  • UAV operational and tactical level – 572 (+10),
  • Special equipment – 54 (+1),
  • Mobile SRBM system – 4 (+0),
  • Cruise missiles – 125 (+0)

Humanitarian

Ukraine plans to construct a memorial for fallen heroes of Mariupol’s Azovstal steelworks in Kyiv. Presumably, it will be on the bank of the Dnipro River next to the WWII memorial–Mother Motherland monument.

Czech RegioJet train company launched a new train route to Ukraine: Prague-Lviv-Kyiv, becoming one of the first train companies connecting Ukraine and the EU countries. The ticket will cost EUR 9 to Lviv and EUR 25 to Kyiv.

John Cena meets a Ukrainian teen with Down syndrome who fled the country in wake of a Russian invasion. A boy had posters of Cena in the Mariupol apartment his family lived in before Russian forces bombed the structure.

Support

The UK Secretary for Defense Ben Wallace met with President Zelenskyy and Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov in Kyiv on 10 June. The three agreed to work even more closely going forward in support of their shared goal of enabling Ukraine to liberate itself from illegal Russian occupation. The meetings focused on the UK continuing to provide operationally effective lethal aid that meets the current and future threats facing Ukraine.

Zelenskyy spoke at the Fourth Copenhagen Democracy Summit ahead of voting for Ukraine’s EU candidacy. “We need to finally remove this gray zone, which is so tempting for Russia. We need to move from words that Ukraine is part of the European family to action,” Zelenskyy said.

Three countries opposing granting Ukraine EU candidate status are Sweden, Denmark, and The Netherlands – European Pravda. Sweden and Denmark push for Ukraine becoming only a “potential candidate” over anti-corruption requirements; The Netherlands could withdraw opposition if it is the only EU member opposing granting Ukraine EU candidate status at the 23-24 June summit.

Two EU countries do not see Ukraine as an EU candidate, Deputy PM for European Integration of Ukraine Stefanishina said earlier. The EU Commission is expected to recommend next week that Ukraine be granted candidate status. This would need the approval of member states.

45% of the needed sanctions against Russia are implemented , Yermak-McFaul Expert Group assessed. “As in the past, there is no progress on recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism, secondary sanctions, enhancing the transparency of businesses operating in Russia,” they noted.

The main task regarding sanctions is to kill Russian export , Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba wrote. “Russia earns by selling raw materials abroad. 70% is transported by sea. Russian fleet provides only a small part. It’s dependent on foreign ships, this is their Achilles’ heel,” he stressed.

Serbia refuses to join EU sanctions. During his visit to Serbia, German Chancellor Scholz called on the country to join the EU sanctions. President Vucic refused. Serbia is an EU candidate & at the same time maintains close ties with Russia, in particular, gets almost all its gas from Russia.

German imports from Russia are up by 60% in January-April 2022, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk tweeted. “It’s crazy. Despite the Russian war of aggression, Germany increased its imports from Russia by 60%(!) in January-April 2022 and transferred €6 billion more to Moscow. The Ukrainian-German trade fell by 11%,” Melnyk wrote.

Lithuania will try to get Russian patriarch Kirill listed in the EU’s 7th package of sanctions, Lithuania’s PM Landsbergis says noting he was removed at the last moment in the 6th package, but there is a political consensus to have him listed.

Legal

Russian proxy “Donetsk People’s Republic” sentences to death 3 foreigners who fought in Ukrainian Army. Russian state RIA Aiden Aslin, Sean Pinner (UK citizens), and Saadun Brahim (Morocco citizen). They have a month to appeal.

Russia’s Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said that the Geneva Conventions do not apply to foreigners who protect Ukraine from Russian invaders. According to him, they should be “denazified first.” General Staff of Ukraine stressed that all foreign fighters defending Ukraine are members of the Armed Forces and they are protected by the Geneva Convention. The killing of prisoners is considered a war crime & has no statute of limitations.

Russian occupiers in Mariupol are dumping bodies killed during siege together with trash at the landfill , advisor to Mariupol mayor Andriushchenko stated.

Ukraine has documented more than 11,600 war crimes by Russian forces. Putin’s war in Ukraine is different from past conflicts in many ways, ranging from the kind of weapons used to the insistence of some that the pursuit of the end of the fighting is more important than defeating the invader. But perhaps the most important is that new technologies permit the documentation of Russian war crimes in real time, notes Paul Goble.

Environmental

Ukraine sets up HQ to prepare for the heating season. Russians destroyed >200 boiler houses and severely damaged Kremenchuk, Chernihiv, Okhtyrka, Luhansk, and Sievierodonetsk thermal power plants. This year’s heating season will not be easy, said PM Denys Shmyhal.

Ukraine plugs into EU power grid. This means EU opens technical ability to import electricity from Ukraine. “It’s very important for us that… despite the war, we were able to do it 2.5 years earlier than planned. By the year-end we can earn about EUR 1.5 billion,” Ukraine’s energy advisor Lana Zerkal believes.

Ukraine’s gas operator urges Germany to stop Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. “ Only Russia will lose. While Europe is preparing to give up Russian gas, it can be transported to the EU via Ukrainian pipelines, like before Nord Stream,” director of Ukraine’s gas operator Serhiy Makohon said on air of Ukraine’s Fakty TV station. He added that Nord Stream-1 was granted legal exemptions to ensure European energy security, but as it’s not facilitating security now, it is time to switch back to Ukrainian pipelines, which have many branches and thus can ensure energy safety.

Russian state media RIA shares video showing stolen grain from Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk Oblast being delivered to Russia, claims 650 tons were delivered. These images invoke memories of the Holodomor, Stalin’s artificial famine of 1932-33, during which at least 4 million Ukrainians starved to death.

Russian artillery damages fertile Ukrainian soil. After full-scale Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s fertile fields turned into fields of fierce fighting. Instead of ears of corn, there is now land cut by funnels from shelling. Some reach 4-6 meters in depth & tens of m in diameter. Strikes cause soil damage, Ukrinform reported.

Assessment On the War

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Friday 10 June:

Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend against recent Ukrainian counterattacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast. The GUR stated that Russian forces moved these mines from Russia’s Rostov Oblast to the Kherson area despite the fact the mines were meant to be destroyed. The GUR claimed that some of the mines detonated during the transportation processes and killed Russian sappers from the 49th Combined Arms Army. The GUR’s report is consistent with previous statements that Russian forces are moving old and obsolete equipment to Ukraine to make up for equipment losses, including deploying T-62 tanks to the Melitopol area and pulling MLRS and 152mm howitzers from storage in Irkutsk, Siberia.

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Russian military command continues to face pervasive issues with force generation. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian officials in Luhansk Oblast have had to reduce their mobilization efforts due to widespread protests against aggressive mobilization efforts that have taken a toll on the labor market in Luhansk. Attacks on Russian military recruitment offices are additionally continuing. An unidentified assailant threw a Molotov cocktail at the military commissariat in Vladivostok, which is the eighteenth such reported attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. As Russian officials escalate mobilization efforts over the background of continued losses in Ukraine, they will continue to run the risk of instigating public dissent and pushback against such recruitment practices.

Key Takeaways

  • Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, advancing the Kremlin’s likely efforts to annex occupied areas of Ukraine into Russia as an okrug (federal district).
  • Russian forces continued to fight for the Azot industrial zone in Sievierodonetsk under the cover of heavy artillery fire.
  • Russian forces made marginal gains north of Sloviansk but are likely to face difficulties assaulting the city itself because of the tactical challenges posed by crossing the Siverskyi Donets River.
  • Russian forces made incremental advances to the east of Bakhmut and will continue efforts to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to the northeast of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces are likely engaged in limited fighting along occupied frontiers in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian forces continue to focus on strengthening defensive lines along the Southern Axis and are intensifying ground attacks in northeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast with the support of troop and equipment rotations.

Opinion worth noting

Russia’s war with Ukraine affects billions. NATO could end it in a moment. A recent UN report calls upon the world to “act” to alleviate the impact of Russia’s war with Ukraine on billions worldwide. Yet it does not name the most effective measure to immediately end the suffering of billions of people, writes Hand Petter Midttun.

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