UGA increases forecast for harvest of grain, oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the August forecast, to 67.5 million tonnes from 64.5 million tonnes, according to the UGA website on Wednesday.

This change in forecasts is due to an increase in the area where the crop will be harvested, as well as an improvement in the average yield from 3.57 tonnes/ha to 3.64 tonnes/ha.

According to it, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 47.5 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 31% less – 32.8 million tonnes), provided that marine grain corridors are operational until the end of the marketing year. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of 2022/2023 MY amounted to 26 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are estimated at 19.2 million tonnes (in the forecast for August, 37% more – 30.5 million tonnes).

"In general, export of grain and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports continue to operate until the end of the season. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it," the organization said in a statement.

According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19.3 million tonnes (1.5% more compared to the August forecast); 24 million tonnes of corn (forecast kept); 5.6 million tonnes of barley (3.7% more); 10 million tonnes of sunflower (11% more); 3.6 million tonnes of soybeans (1.6 times more); and 3.15 million tonnes of rapeseed (5% more).

In the November forecast, the association raised its export forecasts compared to August ones – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected at the level of 13 million tonnes (33% more), corn – 20 million tonnes (a 2-fold increase), barley – 2 million tonnes (forecast is kept), sunflower – 6 million tonnes (forecast is kept), soybean – 3.5 million tonnes (an increase of 2 times), and rapeseed – 2.8 million tonnes (forecast is kept).

"We estimate the preliminary forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds for the next 2023 at the level of 53.2 million tonnes, and export at the level of 39.7 million tonnes. Everything will depend on the conditions under which Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out spring sowing, and subsequently harvest crops," the UGA said in the statement.