The weather continues to play a significant role in the course of Russia’s war in Ukraine. With the ground frozen, there has likely been little change in cross country mobility (CCM) conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.
The relevant statement was made by the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom on Twitter, referring to the latest Defence Intelligence update, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
According to the UK intelligence, on February 8, 2023, surface temperatures were around 0 degrees Celsius. Over the coming week, forecasts suggest soil temperature increases and snow melt are likely to deteriorate CCM across the Donbas.
The UK intelligence expects that CCM is likely to be at its worst, with extremely muddy conditions, over mid- to late-March. Thus, commanders on both sides will highly likely seek to avoid scheduling major offensives at such times.
“However, perceived political or operational opportunities can override such concerns, as demonstrated by Russia launching its invasion in late-February 2022,” the UK intelligence noted.