Ukraine’s air defense improved fourfold since start of Russian invasion.

At the start of Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine’s air defense intercepted only around 12–18% of Russian cruise missiles, according to a report by the RUSI think tank. Now, in the best of days, this indicator reaches 88%.

Russia’s shock attack started with mass missile strikes from sea, air, and ground launch systems, which were preceded by electronic attacks that damaged Ukraine’s radars. This all presented a challenge for Ukraine’s air defense.

Ukrainian short-range Buk air defense missile / Photo credit: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

“Given the orders to redeploy Ukrainian forces [seven hours before the invasion], the damage and disruption to [command and control], the unexpected concentration on the Gomel axis, and the forced displacement of systems, many Ukrainian systems were alive, but uncoordinated for the initial 24 hours. A significant proportion of the air-defense infrastructure survived but was not in a position to conduct a coordinated defence. Instead, it largely delivered pop-up attacks against Russian forces,” RUSI notes.

However, Russia with time and with the influx of western air defense weapons, Ukraine got better at shooting down Russian cruise missiles : during the best days, it reaches 88%.

Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and success rate of Ukraine’s air defense
Date of missile strike	Missiles launched	Missiles intercepted	Percent of success	Type of missiles
October 10	84	45	53.5%	Kh-101, Kh-555, Iskander
October 18	28	20	71.5%
October 22	36	18	50%	Kh-101, Kh-555, Kalibr
October 31	50	44	88%	Kh-101, Kalibr, Kh-59
November 15	90	73	81%	Kh-101, Kh-555, Kalibr
November 17	18	6	33%	Kh-101, Kh-59, Kh-55 without nuclear warhead
November 23	70	51	73%	Kalibr, Kh-101, Kh-555

The effectiveness has risen from 12–18% on the first day of war up to nearly 50–90%. This improvement is explained by the fact that Ukrainian air defense units received valuable experience over these 9 months of Russian missile shelling, as well as ever-increasing supplies of western modern air defense systems to Ukraine, such as NASAMS or IRIS-T, the Ukrainian portal Defense Express writes.

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