Ukraine's GDP in 2022 will fall by 30%, subject to a protracted war until the end of the year, and subject to a truce and the possible opening of ports – by 22-25%, such estimates were voiced by Dragon Capital Head Tomas Fiala.
"This will be a big blow to the economy - its losses will amount to 30% of GDP, if there is no truce and the war lasts all year. If there is a truce, then we predict a 22-25% decline in the economy," he said at the Global Outlook: Economic Frontline event organized by the EBA on Tuesday.
Speaking about the projected devaluation of the hryvnia, Fiala noted that there will be some devaluation, but not "too dramatic." Inflation in Ukraine is expected to reach 20% in 2022.
He indicated that the company does not expect a return on its investment this year. In the near future, the company plans to raise salaries after their decline due to the full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine.
"Three of our warehouses were bombed and almost completely burned down," Fiala said.
He noted that thanks to the success of the Ukrainian army, Dragon Capital managed to restart work.
"In general, throughout Ukraine, even in the east, everything is working. Opportunities differ: the lowest level of resumption of work is 30-40%, but basically it is 70% of pre-war activity," Fiala said.